Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin has seen a healthy recovery out from the yearly low as the market tries to find that next higher low ahead of a bullish continuation. The recent break back above internal resistance in the $90k area strengthens the recovery outlook and prospect for a higher low in place at the yearly low, putting the focus back on a retest and break of the record high.  

After a challenging Q1 that saw bitcoin plummet 12% and ETH drop 45%, the crypto market appears to be rebounding, with bitcoin gaining 14% in April and ETH recovering from its lowest level since March 2023 to close the month nearly unchanged. The recovery is largely driven by easing fears over disruptive U.S. trade policies, which had previously weighed on global markets, alongside bitcoin’s overdue technical correction finally playing out off the record high in January. This record high had been fueled by crypto friendly Trump administration policy promises, which we expect will see more follow through over the coming quarters.

Notably, bitcoin’s April performance diverged from struggling U.S. equities, underscoring its growing appeal as an uncorrelated asset, a store of value, and a hedge against the U.S. dollar, with bitcoin outperforming major assets over the past 30 days while the S&P 500 lagged in the red. ETH’s earlier underperformance stemmed from its risk sensitivity, internal debates within the Ethereum Foundation, and competition from other blockchains, but recent clarity on Ethereum’s roadmap and its strong adoption in the blockchain space signal a more positive outlook for the duration of 2025.