Macro crypto currency market outlook

The year of 2021 was a breakout year for cryptocurrencies, with both bitcoin and ether extending record runs. The primary drivers of performance came from institutional adoption of bitcoin, and the explosion of decentralised finance and NFTs via Ethereum. Though we did see some selling pressure into the end of 2021, performance metrics were impressive. Bitcoin was up 40% in 2021, while ether rocketed, closing out the year with a 265% return.

As we look ahead to the year of 2022, our overall outlook remains constructive. However, unlike 2021, we believe there is risk for bitcoin to outperform ether when considering three major factors.

1) Macro: Less investor friendly, higher US interest rates are in the pipeline, while COVID fallout has still not been properly assessed. This backdrop lends itself more to the benefit of flight to safety, store of value assets, which would likely translate to bitcoin outperformance relative to ether.

2) Competition: We also believe ether could have a tougher path forward given all of the competition around it. With bitcoin, we don’t really see any competition. But as far as Ethereum goes, there are many other blockchains on the rise trying to capture market share. These include, Solana, Polkadot, and Tezos.

3) Regulation: Regulation is another concern for the space overall in 2022. There are still many questions unanswered here and market participants will be looking for clarity. We worry this clarity could once again prove more disruptive to the Ethereum blockchain given the conversation around the definition of securities.

On net, we still believe the longer-term benefits and potential around cryptocurrencies will prove to be a prop for both bitcoin and ether relative to the US Dollar in 2022. At the same time, we also see a place where bitcoin could outperform ether over the next 12 months.