Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin has extended its recovery to the highest level since April 2022. The latest breakout beyond $45k also ends a period of consolidation which opens the next measured move extension towards an objective of $50k over the short-term. At this stage, any setbacks should be exceptionally well supported on dips towards $30k. Ultimately, expect higher highs and higher lows for an eventual retest and break of the record high.

We’re coming out of a spectacular year of performance in crypto assets. In 2023, both bitcoin and ether significantly outperfomed all other major assets. Bitcoin was up 156% on the year, and ether was up 91%. What made this performance all the more impressive was the fact that in came on the back of a massive fallout in 2022 from all of the turmoil around major implosions, and in the face of intense regulatory scrutiny.

But as we come into 2024, the outlook is very bright. What once seemed like it could be a near impossibility, is now looking like a certainty, with the SEC expected to go ahead and approve the bitcoin spot ETF applications in the days ahead. We also have a bitcoin halving event in Q2 2024 that has historically generated demand. There are those who have expressed concern about a sell-off in bitcoin once the ETF approvals are confirmed. While we acknowledge there could be some profit taking on a short-term basis, ultimately, this is a major event that should invite overwhelming demand into any dips.

We fully expect widespread institutional adoption later in the year as the ETFs go live and get up and running. The benefit of access to a new institutional product in an asset that has also proven to be uncorrelated, is a benefit that will unquestionably be taken advantage of, especially considering the fact these institutions will not need to have any direct contact with the underlying asset. We also think back to a 2022 Nasdaq survey of 500 financial advisors in the traditional markets space in which 72% of respondents said they would be more likely to invest in crypto if spot ETFs were approved in the US. We suspect that poll would produce an even higher percentage result a year later in light of 2023 performance.

And so, we believe the stage is set for what should be a very exciting year for the crypto asset class. Mainstream sentiment is also changing in a positive way and when this money comes flowing in, crypto assets should shine even brighter.