Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin remains under pressure after an impressive rally to fresh record highs in October, but for now pullbacks have been well supported above the $80,000 area. Price action suggests the potential formation of the next meaningful higher low, which would set the stage for a resumption of the broader bullish trend. A clear break back above $95,000 would reinforce this constructive outlook and open the door for a renewed push above $100,000, followed by a retest and eventual break of the record high. A sustained move below $80,000 would be the key risk, signaling a delay to this bullish scenario.

The crypto market delivered an undeniably disappointing fourth-quarter performance. This was disappointing not only because bitcoin and ETH had already printed fresh record highs earlier in 2025, but also because of the monumental progress made throughout the year on both the regulatory and adoption fronts. Adding to the frustration, prior fourth quarters had historically produced exceptional returns, further elevating expectations.

That said, while the headline performance fell short, the underlying price action can also be viewed as a healthy and necessary reset. The drawdown helped unwind overleveraged positioning and clear excess froth from the system—developments that, while uncomfortable in the moment, often serve to reset market structure and lay the foundation for more sustainable upside.

As we move into the new year, early signs of stabilization and renewed momentum are beginning to emerge. This is evident not only in the charts, but also in the broader improvement in sentiment and energy surrounding the outlook for the year ahead.

2026 is shaping up to be a year of meaningful progress in crypto infrastructure and application development, with real-world use cases increasingly coming into focus. As these products and services mature, they should begin to turn the demand side higher—bringing the ecosystem back to its core purpose of making financial markets more efficient, accessible, and easier to use.