Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after finally pushing up to a fresh record high beyond $100,000. Overall, the outlook remains highly constructive, and a higher low is now sought out ahead of a bullish continuation. Any setbacks should be exceptionally well supported ahead of previous resistance turned support in the $75,000 area, ideally around $90,000. Back above the current record high at $109,360 will open the door for the next major upside extension towards $130,000.

We’re coming out of a January month that was a mixed bag for crypto assets. On the one side, bitcoin traded up 10% while making a fresh record high. On the other side, ETH, the world’s second largest crypto asset struggled to keep pace, closing out lower by about 1%.

Overall, the market has been feeling good about all of the adoption into 2025, along with the warm embrace from the new US administration. At the same time, there is a feeling all of the positives have been priced in and all of the euphoria has faded away.

This has prevented bitcoin from managing a continuation of gains through $110k, while inspiring a subsequent wave of across the board profit taking after some already impressive moves in recent months.

As far as ETH’s struggles go, a lot of this has come from concerns around leadership within the Ethereum community and competition from other chains. Yet overall, ETH continues to be the major force when it comes to decentralized finance and smart contracts, with plenty of demand expected into dips.

We’re also seeing some macro headwinds take hold. The market has been increasingly worried about a Federal Reserve that may not have the luxury of being as accommodative as it would like it to be in 2025. This along with disruptions associated with President Trump trade tariffs have invited a wave of risk off flow.

With all that said, the outlook remains highly constructive. There has been a clear path set for wider adoption of crypto assets over the coming months and we have even seen the Fed Chair himself recognizing crypto assets and the ability for banks to provide crypto services to clients.

Seasonality trends are also looking up for crypto assets. If we use bitcoin as a proxy, we should expect a strong performance over the next 4 weeks, with February standing out as one of the best months for bitcoin performance. ETH monthly performance has been even more impressive in the month of February.