Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin remains under pressure since topping out at a fresh record high in October 2025. However, at this stage, the correction looks like it could be nearing completion as the market comes back down into a critical support zone between the 2025 low at $74,420 and the lower end of previous resistance from 2024 at $70,000. Any additional setbacks should therefore be exceptionally well supported into the $70,000 area ahead of the formation of a major base and the start to the next upside extension back towards and through the record high. 

January proved another frustrating month for crypto (BTC -10%, ETH -17%), with prices continuing to grind lower and, notably, decoupling from what would normally be supportive cross-asset signals as global equities pushed to record highs and metals surged in parabolic fashion. Sentiment remained heavy, with markets still nursing a hangover from a disappointing Q4 that failed to live up to historical seasonality—exacerbated by the October 10 liquidation event—especially after such a landmark year for adoption, ETFs, and broader institutional acceptance.

Liquidity conditions also stayed restrictive, and as the month drew to a close, fresh pressure emerged from speculation around a more hawkish Fed chair appointment—reviving fears of dollar strength and risk-off flows, both headwinds for crypto. Forced deleveraging and outflows added to the downside momentum. That said, sharp pullbacks are nothing new in this asset class and have historically failed to derail the bigger picture, which still points higher over time.

Looking ahead, the fundamental backdrop remains highly encouraging: structural adoption continues to deepen, infrastructure keeps improving, and long-term demand drivers are firmly intact. From a technical perspective, the recent drawdown is bringing price closer to attractive levels, with strong support clustered toward the $70k area, where we expect medium- and longer-term participants to become increasingly active, setting the stage for eventual stabilization and recovery. Finally, we always like to assess where the balance of risks lies, and with so much bearishness now priced in—including the latest Fed-related concerns—the risk skew is increasingly shifting back toward the upside.