Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin remains confined to a well-defined uptrend and is in the process of a minor consolidation off the recent record high from mid-August. Any setbacks should be exceptionally well supported, with only a weekly close below the 50-week SMA to delay the constructive outlook. Look for a bullish continuation in the weeks ahead beyond $126k and towards $150k.  

October proved to be a mild disappointment for those leaning on historical seasonality and trend analysis. Traditionally one of bitcoin’s stronger months, October finally broke its six-year streak of positive performance, ending roughly 3.7% lower. Yet, this modest decline should be viewed in perspective rather than alarm.

A 3.7% monthly pullback is hardly dramatic for an asset class accustomed to double-digit swings. Moreover, it comes on the heels of an atypically strong September — a month that is historically weak but delivered gains of over 5% this year. In that context, October’s softness appears less a reversal and more a pause within a broader constructive trend.

Technically, the market remains firmly underpinned. The 50-week moving average continues to act as robust support, sustaining the strong uptrend that has been in place since 2023. Price action in recent months is best described as bullish consolidation — a period of digestion before the next leg higher toward new record highs.

From a fundamental standpoint, crypto’s backdrop in 2025 remains exceptionally strong. Ethereum has finally enjoyed its own breakout year, surpassing its 2021 high and setting the stage for a potentially significant advance in the months ahead. With momentum broadening across the asset class, we continue to expect fresh all-time highs into year-end — envisioning bitcoin toward $150,000 and ETH near $10,000 as plausible upside targets.

Seasonality also lends support to this view. Historically, the fourth quarter has been bitcoin’s best-performing period, typically followed by a robust first quarter — especially for ETH, which often lags before accelerating in Q1.

All told, October’s modest setback should not discourage investors. The larger structure remains decisively bullish, positioning the market for what could be an exciting run into year-end and potentially well into 2026.