Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin has entered a period of correction and consolidation following the March surge to a fresh record high beyond $70k. The market is in the process of seeking out a higher low ahead of the next major upside extension and bullish continuation towards $100k. As far as setbacks go, we wouldn’t rule out a deeper drop towards $50k, as this would do nothing to compromise the bullish structure. But any dips below $50k should be short-lived and exceptionally well supported.

March was a milestone month for bitcoin, with the price finally pushing through the record high from 2021. Bitcoin closed out the month trading up some 17%, extending its impressive run of 2024 performance. Bitcoin also closed out Q1 2024 trading up 69%, easily outperforming all other major assets. The primary driver behind the gains was ongoing mainstream adoption in the aftermath of the SEC approval of the bitcoin spot ETFs earlier this year. Inflows into the ETFs have been more than impressive and as education and promotion efforts ramp up in the months ahead, we suspect there will continue to be plenty of demand for the ETF products.

Looking ahead, there will also be plenty of attention around the next bitcoin halving event scheduled for mid-April. This time round, the halving event will have a bigger audience, which could result in additional demand. At the same time, we believe the event has already been well telegraphed by the market, which should limit any major reaction. Furthermore, in previous halving events, the price of bitcoin was well off its record high, giving it more of an excuse to be looking to driver higher. As we come into this halving event, bitcoin has just put in a fresh record high and could be less inclined to be wanting to extend its record run before first going through an overdue period of correction and consolidation.

Ultimately however, the outlook remains exceptionally bright, and we believe there will be even more reason for bitcoin to be wanting to extend its run in 2024, especially with the crypto ecosystem looking to get another boost by way of the SEC approval of ETH spot ETFs which many believe could come later this year. Our biggest concern looking out to the coming months is the short-term risk associated with any disruption in the US equity market. But should this transpire, bitcoin is expected to quickly find its footing as market participants get turned on to bitcoin’s attractive properties as a store of value asset.